The Nessus Software System for Probabilistic Structural Analysis
The Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project developed at SwRI integrates state-of-the-art structural analysis techniques with probability theory for the design and analysis...
Probabilistic Analysis of Structures Composed of Path Dependent Materials
A procedure is outlined for calculating the time-evolving CDF's (cumulative probability distribution functions) of structural response variables for cases in which the structure's...
Verification of NESSUS Code on Space Propulsion Components
Application of probabilistic finite element method to the structural analysis of typical space propulsion components such as turbine blades and high pressure ducts is reported. The study...
Application of Probabilistic Reliability Analysis Methods to Ariane 5 Unequipped Booster Case
The paper demonstrates the capabilities of probabilistic structure analysis methods as a tool to support the design and manufacture of the Ariane 5 Unequipped Booster Case within a RAMS...
Reliability Consistent Load and Resistance Factors
A practical algorithm to find the partial safety factors consistent with target reliability in LRFD format is proposed. The method is based on Second Order Second Moment method and Reliability...
Preclosure Safety Analysis for a Prospective Yucca Mountain Conceptual Design Repository
A preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the prospective Yucca Mountain conceptual design repository. A new methodology to quantify radioactive source terms was developed...
Space Debris?A Design Consideration
With the increased use of space by manned or unmanned missions, it has become necessary to include yet another parameter in the design of spacecraft, namely, the effect of a probable impact...
Man-Made Debris Environment Characterization for Spacecraft Vulnerability Assessment
An issue of growing importance in the study of orbital debris is the need to understand the consequence of impact on a space structure. In this paper, a technique is developed to analyze...
Application of Statistical Distribution Theory to Launch-on-Time for Space Construction Logistic Support
The Center for Space Construction (CSC) has acquired historical launch vehicle data for analyzing space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include...
Planning Model for Sewer System Rehabilitation
A probabilistic model is developed to simulate long-term variation in the structural condition of wastewater collection systems. The effects of both deterioration and rehabilitation can...
Predicting Watermain Breakage Rates
Recent studies on water main breakage have shown significant spatial and temporal clustering in the breakage pattern. The methodology described in the paper provides the basis for a prediction...
Probabilistic Basis for Managing Maintenance
The paper discusses a procedure based on component failure probabilities, consequences of failure, and risk associated with loss of system. Aging effect of structures and equipment on...
Probabilistic Analysis of Maintenance Options
Maintenance usually means service disruption, repair cost and loss of production. This is especially true for structures or components which provide basic infrastructure services, such...
Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on Soil Moisture and Water Runoff in Texas
In this paper a numerical evaluation of the variability of soil moisture and surface runoff due to global warming is carried out. An analytical model of the soil moisture balance based...
A Newsboy Approach to Real-Time Reservoir Operation Modelling
This investigation focuses on the use of mathematical programming techniques to develop a model for scheduling, in real-time, the releases from a single reservoir via a probabilistic approach...
Applications of Probability Matrix Methods for Texas Reservoirs
Probability matrix methods are a class of procedures which were generally developed from P.A.P. Moran's Theory of Storage. In essence, probability matrix methods are a means...
Incorporating Risk Analysis Into Spreadsheet Forecasts
The risk analysis technique presented overcomes the difficulties of sensitivity analysis by entering key input variables as probability distributions, rather than as discreet values. Using...
Optimizing Wet-Dry Precipitation Probabilities for Improving Plant Establishment
Studies have shown that the chances of achieving successful seedling establishment in arid and semiarid regions is dependent upon the pattern of favorable wet-dry precipitation sequences....
Flood Hazard Delineation on Alluvial Fans
Alluvial fans are significant geomorphic features of arid lands. The unconfined and dynamic nature of alluvial fans makes standard methods of delineating flood hazards unsuitable. The...
The Development of a Hydrologic Drought Index and Termination Rate Probabilities
The development of a hydrologic drought index (HDI) based on drought severity is presented along with a new formulation for drought termination probabilities. Results indicate that termination...
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