# Applications of Probability Matrix Methods for Texas Reservoirs

*by*Samuel K. Vaugh,

**Document Type:**Proceeding Paper

**Part of:**Optimizing the Resources for Water Management

**Abstract:**

Probability matrix methods are a class of procedures which were generally developed from P.A.P. Moran's Theory of Storage. In essence, probability matrix methods are a means of relating hydrologic inputs to reservoir capacity and withdrawals such that the probable state of the reservoir contents at any time may be estimated. The method used herein is referred to as transient analysis which has been coded into a computer program called PROSTOR. A graphical presentation of projected probability distributions of storage in the Highland Lakes System near Austin, Texas, subject to an initial active storage of 55 percent and fixed water supply releases is provided as an example. Example applications are discussed.

**Subject Headings:**Probability | Matrix (mathematics) | Reservoirs | Water resources | Water storage | Risk management | Hydrology | Computer analysis | Texas | United States

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