System Reliability Using Expert Opinion
The objective of the study on which this paper is based was to determine the safe performance of several different interior gas piping systems. This paper describes the piping systems...
Experiences with Applications of Importance Sampling in Structural Reliability Computations
This paper presents some experiences and observations relating to the use of importance sampling in structural systems reliability computations. These are presented with three examples,...
Effects of Nonlinearities on Structural Reliability and Serviceability
Serviceability and failure limit states are computed using the Simple Plastic Theory (SPT) as well as with a Nonlinear Structural Analysis Program (NSAP). Geometric and material nonlinearities...
Dynamic Response of Tall Buildings to Wind Loads
The purpose of this study is to perform a probabilistic analysis of tall buildings subjected to wind excitation. A time domain simulation is first applied to the nonlinear problem. After...
Probabilistic Structural Response of a Turbopump Blade to Random Pulse Loading
The objective of this work is to develop probabilistic models of the response of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade to random impact loading. These loads are caused by...
A Probabilistic Comparative Study of Various Base Isolation Systems?Nonstationary Earthquake Excitation
A probabilistic comparative study of various base isolation systems is carried out. The laminated rubber bearing with and without lead plug, the resilient-friction, and the EDF base isolation...
Efficient Methods in Time Dependent Reliability
A general and efficient method is presented for computing failure probabilities for components and systems where the uncertainties are represented by a mixture of random variables and...
Quantifying Quality Improvement Programs
Structural codes are evolving to a limit state design basis in which the safety checks are derived from the underlying probability distributions of strength and loads. An example safety...
Engineering Reliability: The Organizational Link
Organizational factors may significantly affect systems' reliability, but they are not typically included in modeling. This paper discusses how the stochastic models of system...
Bayesian Updating of Seismic Fragilities of Nuclear Power Plant Components
Seismic fragility is represented by a curve of the conditiional probability of failure as a function of the peak ground acceleration. Since there are many uncertainties in the model and...
Rainflow Cycles in Nonstationary Gaussian Processes
This paper develops a methodology for calculating the probability distribution for rainflow cycles in a nonstationary Gaussian process. The up- and downcrossing rates are estimated for...
Probability of Failure Under a Biaxial State of Stress
Structural components are subjected to uniaxial stress states only infrequently. Even under such simple conditions as direction tension or bending the presence of holes, cutouts and other...
Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Random Functions and Categorical Variables
This paper describes a reliability procedure that can handle certain classes of random functions and qualitative categorical variables. The method is an extension of the R. Rackwitz-B....
Efficient Probabilistic Structural Analysis Using an Advanced Mean Value Method
An advanced mean-value (AMV) method for probabilistic structural analysis is presented. This method blends the conventional mean value method with the advanced structural reliability analysis...
Markov Approximation to Fatigue Crack Propagation
The distribution of the time required by a crack to reach a specified length and the distribution of the crack size itself are determined. To this end, the fatigue crack propagation growth...
Challenges in Stochastic Structural Mechanics
Currently there are the emerging developments in stochastic computational mechanics, which includes stochastic finite elements and its applications in problems of random systems and random...
Forecast Uncertainty in Reservoir Operation
Bayesian decision theory can be of significant value to reservoir operation because of its flexibility in being able to incorporate new information and/or opinions and judgments of decision...
Floodplain-Management Plan Enumeration
A branch-and-bound enumeration procedure can improve the search for an optimal floodplain-management plan. The procedure compares the net benefit of all possible combinations of proposed...
Probabilistic Approach to Maintenance Scheduling
Maintenance has the purpose of prolonging the working life of equipment and of sustaining expected levels of performance and reliability. If equipment deterioration is construed as a probabilistic...
Probabilistic Maintenance Opportunities
The Bureau of Reclamation has instituted a number of operation and maintenance oversight activities to ensure that Reclamation and water-user operated projects are operated and maintained...
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