Forecast Uncertainty in Reservoir Operation

by Mohammad Karamouz, Pratt Inst, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Critical Water Issues and Computer Applications


Bayesian decision theory can be of significant value to reservoir operation because of its flexibility in being able to incorporate new information and/or opinions and judgments of decision makers or operators in the interpretation of probability. The Bayesian model developed in this study will provide a considerably more realistic approach to the input of forecast data in reservoir management. By including a real time posterior probability processors, forecasts can be continuously updated to comply with current conditions.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Uncertainty principles | Reservoirs | Hydrologic models | Water resources | Water supply | Bayesian analysis | Optimization models

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