Probabilities of Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Analysis
Extreme floods of very low probabilities, e.g., 10-6 and 10-7, are estimated using data on annual flood peaks...
Joint Probability Calculation of Storm Depths
A methodology is presented to estimate exceedance probabilities of rainfall depths over large areas using joint probability. The joint probability estimate combines the frequency distribution...
Extreme Flood Probability Estimates in Practice
Selecting the safety design flood for a dam or siting structures where flooding would cause severe social or economic disruption requires balancing the likelihood and consequences of failure...
Estimation of the Probability of a Precipitation Event Occurring Over a Specified Watershed
A methodology is proposed for making rational flood control decisions when the physical characteristics of the upstream watershed are known and the characteristics of the extreme precipitation...
Probabilistic Approaches to Maintenance
All structures and their components are subject to the aging process, to wear and tear in the performance of assigned functions and to deterioration by exposure to the operating environment....
Quantifying Uncertainty in Hydropower Planning
Power system operators must deal with various types of uncertainties. Some are related to inputs, such as system load and water supply, while others pertain to the system itself, such...
Probabilistic Capacity Value of Nonfirm Hydro Energy
Electric utilities with a predominant mix of hydro generation traditionally apply Energy Planning criteria rather than Capacity Planning criteria in developing their generation resources...
A Case for Selecting Only Deterministic Spillway Design Floods for High Hazard Dams
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has under license or exemption from licensing more than 2000 hydroelectric dams. The Office of Hydropower Licensing published, in September 1986,...
Lateral Analysis of Drilled Piers Incorporating Soil Variability
In probabilistic studies, the mean or expected value of the parameter in question, along with its measured dispersion or standard deviation, are determined. In this study the Three Point...
A Stochastic Model for Low-Cycle Elastic-Plastic Fatigue Crack Growth
In this paper a stochastic process approach is considered to represent the random nature of the low-cycle (elastic-plastic) fatigue crack growth process. A semi-Markov renewal model is...
Recent Thoughts on Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Growth
We briefly review recent results of analysis of fatigue crack growth data. Implications of this analysis are presented, and reasons are advanced in favor of increasing the dimension of...
Modeling Fatigue Crack Growth Resistance, dN/da
In the fracture mechanics approach to fatigue, da/dN is correlated with the cyclic range of the stress intensity factor, ?K; the resulting relation, da/dN=f (?K), is commonly called the...
Stochastic Modeling of Fatigue Crack Growth
A new lognormal fatigue crack propagation model has been presented in which a two-dimensional state vector has been employed to introduce experimentally observed history dependence of...
Load Combinations for Codified Design
Loading requirements used in current standards for structural design are not consistent in their conceptual basis, appearance or use. Unified limit states design procedures for structures...
Probabilistic Load Combinations in Nuclear Structures
A variety of loads affect a nuclear power facility during its lifetime. The magnitudes or intensities of these loads are uncertain, and for some of them, their time of occurrence is also...
Markov Chains & Soil Constitutive Modeling
The focus of this research effort is the construction of a mathematical framework to assist in understanding the role of uncertainties in the constitutive/dynamic behavior of soils. The...
Pore Pressure Development: Probability Analysis
The development and subsequent dissipation of excess pore pressure, p in a soil deposit subject to an external load is examined using probability concepts that account for uncertainties...
Probabilistic Prediction of Mixed Mode Fracture Initiation and Trajectory Under Random Stresses
Methods are developed for estimating crack trajectory and the probability of crack initiation in mixed mode fracture. The analysis is based on a computer program for deterministic fracture...
Probabilistic Fatigue Crack Growth Analysis with Reliability Updating
A randomized fatigue crack growth model based on the Paris and Erdogan crack growth equation is used to estimate the reliability of fatigue sensitive details in steel bridges. This model...
Fracture Control for Arctic Vessels and Structures
Materials used for construction of Arctic structures and vessels are exposed to low ambient temperatures, high local ice loads and intermediate to high loading rates. All these factors...
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