Bayesian Updating of Seismic Fragilities of Nuclear Power Plant Components

by M. K. Ravindra, EQE Engineering, United States,
J. -H. Zhou, EQE Engineering, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Probabilistic Methods in Civil Engineering


Seismic fragility is represented by a curve of the conditiional probability of failure as a function of the peak ground acceleration. Since there are many uncertainties in the model and its parameters, a family of fragility curves is developed. In practice a double lognormal model is used to describe the fragility of a component. The parameters of this model are the medial ground acceleration Am, and the logarithmic standard deviations BR and BU representing the randomness in the capacity and the uncertainty in the median capacity respectively. It has been applied in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment studies of over 25 nuclear power plant in the US and abroad.

Subject Headings: Power plants | Seismic effects | Seismic tests | Probability | Nuclear power | Risk management | Bayesian analysis | United States

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