Application of Statistical Distribution Theory to Launch-on-Time for Space Construction Logistic Support

by George W. Morgenthaler, Univ of Colorado at Boulder, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering, Construction, and Operations in Space II


The Center for Space Construction (CSC) has acquired historical launch vehicle data for analyzing space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include development of a better understanding of launch-on-time capability and simulation of required support systems for vehicle assembly and launch which are necessary to support national Space Program construction schedules. In this paper, we present actual unscheduled 'hold' data of various launch vehicles. The data have been supplied by Industrial Associates of CSC. We seek to determine suitable probability models which can describe historical data and can be used for: a) inputs to broader simulations of launch vehicle logistic space construction support processes, and b) to determine which launch operations cause the majority of the unscheduled 'holds', and can be changed to improve launch-on-time. In particular, the paper investigates the ability of a compound distribution probability model to fit the data. This model is manipulated to show how launch system changes can improve launch-on-time statistics.

Subject Headings: Statistics | Space construction | Logistics | Space stations | Aircraft and spacecraft | Probability | System analysis | High-rise buildings

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