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Progressive Failure Probability of Soil Slopes Containing Geologic Anomalies
The variability in the redistribution of stress during sliding failure of a slope is first studied. Presence of a geologic anomaly is shown to affect the failure path pattern and likelihood...

Autocorrelation Functions for Offshore Geotechnical Data
Autocorrelation functions are described. Data from several North Sea sites are analyzed with respect to the vertical and horizontal autocorrelation of a number of soil properties. Based...

Safety Assessment of an Existing Concrete Gravity Dam
The safety and/or probability of failure of an existing 146 m high concrete gravity dam subjected to normal static and dynamic loads is evaluated. Three modes of failure were considered,...

Bayesian Updating of Axial Capacity of Single Pile
The paper outlines a Bayesian technique to update predictions of pile driving and axial pile capacity on the basis of pile driving records. The approach enables one to systematically account...

Probabilistic Evaluation of the Performance of Axially Loaded Bored Piles
Probabilistic evaluation of single slender elastic elements, bored piles, in a multi-layered soil system without noticeable displacement of the soils are considered. The numerical analyses...

Largest and Characteristic Earthquakes in the U.S. East of the Rocky Mountains
A new statistical procedure is proposed for the estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude M in intraplate regions. Starting from a historical catalog of events and a seismotectonic classification...

Analysis of Earthquake Response at a Site With Uncertain Properties
The problem of earthquake response of a soil deposit with uncertain properties is studied in the paper. Various analysis procedures for handling the dynamic response of an uncertain system...

A Stochastic Clustering Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the Central Peruvian Margin
A stochastic model of a process of cluster centers and subsidiary cluster member processes is presented for the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Central Peruvian Margin. In the...

Earthquake Ground Motions Consistent with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
The present study deals with the new methodology for simulation of earthquake ground motion for the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structures. Peak ground acceleration, acceleration...

Seismic Risk Analysis Based on Spectral Characteristics of Ground Motions
This paper presents two different approaches to construct the seismic response spectrum from a probabilistic point of view. One is the uniform hazard response spectrum, the other is the...

A Seismic PRA Procedure in Japan and its Application to a Building Performance Safety Estimation: Part 2. Fragility Analysis
In this paper, a practical seismic fragility evaluation method for structure and equipment systems is proposed. Structural and equipment failures are considered here, reflecting detailed...

A Seismic PRA Procedure in Japan and its Application to a Building Performance Safety Estimation: Part 3. Estimation of Building and Equipment Performance Safety
This paper presents an application of a seismic PRA procedure to an apartment building, which also contains an electric substation for the surrounding area. In this procedure, as presented...

Reconciliation Between Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Margin Analysis Methods
This paper presents a procedure for reconciling the results from the probabilistic and deterministic methods for calculating a high confidence of a low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity...

A Study of Seismic Reliability of Base Isolated Building Comparing with Non Base Isolated Building
An approach to discuss the difference between reliability of base-isolated buildings and that of non base-isolated buildings is presented. The fragility analysis method in PRA procedure...

Application of Physical Laws to Parameter Estimation for Probabilistic Models of Cumulative Damage
In this initial paper we will discuss the development of the application of physical laws to the modeling of cumulative damage and particular to crack growths. The basic assumptions due...

Adaptive Importance Sampling
An adaptive importance sampling scheme is presented which is based on the idea that as one samples, the knowledge of the failure domain increases. If one keeps modifying the importance...

On the Failure Probabilities of R/C Chimneys
A procedure to estimate failure probabilities of structural systems such as reinforced concrete (R/C) chimneys under severe wind loading which allows for considering realistic correlation...

System Reliability Using Higher-Order Moments
A method is proposed for evaluating the reliability of structural systems using higher-order moments. The higher-order moment standardization technique (HOMST) is advanced for transforming...

Probabilistic Concepts of Redundancy and Damage Tolerability for Structural Systems
Intermediate states of structural systems (prior to system collapse and after component loss) are focused herein. This area relates to important issues such as redundancy and damage tolerability....

Study of Redundancy in Near-Ideal Parallel Structural Systems
In this paper the reliability of parallel structural systems is studied in order to begin to understand and quantify the system factors influencing the overload capacity and the redundancy...

 

 

 

 

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