Reconciliation Between Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Margin Analysis Methods

by John W. Reed, Jack R. Benjamin and Assoc Inc, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Structural Safety and Reliability


This paper presents a procedure for reconciling the results from the probabilistic and deterministic methods for calculating a high confidence of a low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity in a seismic margin analysis. There is a large number of combinations of structural parameter values which could be assumed in the deterministic method, each of which will produce the same level of conservatism (i.e., a HCLPF). By examining the intermediate results using the two methods, for a given component, a reconciliation analysis can be performed which leads to identification of where conservatism is placed. It is suggested for critical components that both methods be performed in order to gain the benefits of both perspectives.

Subject Headings: Probability | Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Risk management | Failure analysis | Seismic waves | Parameters (statistics) | Professional societies

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