A Stochastic Clustering Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes Along the Central Peruvian Margin

by Ernesto Heredia, Princeton Univ, United States,
José A. Pires, Princeton Univ, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Structural Safety and Reliability


A stochastic model of a process of cluster centers and subsidiary cluster member processes is presented for the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Central Peruvian Margin. In the formulation of the model, the real process of accumulation and release of tectonic stress is represented by a virtual process of accumulation and release of potential slip. The potential slip is supposed to accumulate linearly during the quiescent time since the occurrence of the last cluster center and to be released during the next cluster member process. The results obtained with the proposed model are compared to those obtained with the simple Poisson model which have been used in the past.

Subject Headings: Stochastic processes | Earthquakes | Mathematical models | Probability | Risk management | Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Geohazards | Peru | South America

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