Evaluating Probability Measures Related to Subsurface Flow and Transport: Overview of Technical Considerations and Modeling Philosophy
Probabilistic modeling approaches are being used increasingly in order to carry out quantified risk analysis and to evaluate the uncertainty existing in subsurface flow and transport analyses....
Spatially Varying Velocity Distribution in Non-uniform Open Channel Flow
The spatial variation of velocity distribution in non-uniform flows were studied, within the framework of a velocity distribution model derived by a probabilistic formulation and entropy-maximization....
Probabilistic Aspects of Hydroproject Maintenance
A survey of operation and maintenance personnel in the hydraulic structures sector was conducted to learn about the present maintenance approach and the perception of the probabilistic...
Reliability Assessment Method for Flood Forecasts
Peak discharge predictions produced by rainfall-runoff models and used by flood warning and preparedness agencies are subject to uncertainties in the input data, model parameters, and...
Uncertainty Quantification in Water Distribution Parameter Estimation
Calibration for water distribution system model parameters is usually undertaken with a minimal amount of field measurements so additional pseudomeasurements are assumed. Both the actual...
Runoff Volume Frequency Estimation
An explicit formula is reported to express the volume of runoff resulting from a single rainfall event in terms of the catchment and rainfall characteristics. This formula is obtained...
Daily Drought Monitoring by the Use of Existing Hydrologic Records
To manage water efficiently in case of drought, an effective drought monitoring method has been of interest. Drought durations and their conditional probabilities are estimated by applying...
Analysis of Ground-Shaking Hazard and Risk for Lifeline Systems
This paper describes deterministic and probabilistic procedures for calculating ground-shaking hazard and risk for lifeline systems. Due to the large real extent of these systems, standard...
Liquefaction Hazard Evaluation: Methodology and Application
Deterministic liquefaction potential evaluations are commonly done in engineering practice and several probabilistic models exist. In this paper an extended method is described that combines...
Cross-Impact Analysis for Lifeline Interactions
A probabilistic method to evaluate the seismic risk of urban lifeline network systems is presented with emphasis on the interactive aspects of lifeline earthquake disaster. First, the...
Joint Occurrence of High Tide and Storm Surge in California
High tides or high storm surges separately generally do not pose a hazard for flooding or structural damage in California. However, when storms and periods of high tides coincide, the...
Probabilistic Assessment of Wind Loading For Structural Analysis
Records of extreme annual gust velocities from 11 weather stations in central-southern Brazil, classified according to orientation (octants) and type of storm (TS and EPS winds), result...
Reliability of Bridges in Turbulent Wind
The present study investigates the stability of bridge motion by means of almost sure or sample stability criteria. An asymptotically exact approximation for the top Lyapunov exponent...
Buffeting Response of Bridges
The present study provides a theoretical analysis of the behavior of the response of long-span bridges to turbulent wind loads in the region of stable motion. The analysis is based on...
Wind Loads on Large Broadcasting Antennas: Records and Elaborations
Alternative estimations of the 50-year gust winds from the data available in typical Italian sites of broadcasting antennas are summarized and compared with the design winds suggested...
Tension Leg Platform Response to Drag Forces by Equivalent Stochastic Quadratization
An equivalent stochastic 'quadratization' method is described for performing nonlinear stochastic response analyses of offshore platforms subject to wave and...
Probabilistic Risk Analysis of TLP Tether Fracture
A stochastic model for fatigue crack growth and final fracture of TLP tethers is formulated. Model updating through in-service inspection is included. The integrity of the cracked tether...
A Methodology for Assessing the Reliability of TLP Tethers Under Maximum and Minimum Lifetime Loads
The Tension Leg Platform (TLP) is a large, floating offshore platform for producing oil and gas in deep water. The TLP is moored to the ocean floor by vertical tethers. Loads in the tethers...
Reliability-Based Design of Tunnel Support in Jointed Rock
The presence of joints in a rock mass may cause local instability of the tunnel support and its effect on safety should be included in design. Because of significant uncertainties in the...
Progressive Failure Probability of Soil Slopes Containing Geologic Anomalies
The variability in the redistribution of stress during sliding failure of a slope is first studied. Presence of a geologic anomaly is shown to affect the failure path pattern and likelihood...
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