Reliability Assessment Method for Flood Forecasts

by Charles S. Melching, Rutgers Univ, Piscataway, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering


Peak discharge predictions produced by rainfall-runoff models and used by flood warning and preparedness agencies are subject to uncertainties in the input data, model parameters, and model structure. Reliability analysis methods can aggregate the effects of the various uncertainties into an approximate probability distribution of peak discharge for a given event. Thus, flood warning decisions could be made considering both the expected peak discharge and the likelihood of exceedence of hazardous flood levels. A simple example employing the HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model for a medium sized watershed illustrates the products of reliability analysis.

Subject Headings: Floods | Forecasting | Structural reliability | Rainfall-runoff relationships | Mathematical models | Water discharge | Structural models | Disaster warning systems

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