Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Forecasts for MBTA Infrastructure Investment Program

by Barry Faulkner, Cambridge Systematics Inc, Cambridge, United States,
Rodolfo Martinez, Cambridge Systematics Inc, Cambridge, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Infrastructure: Planning and Management


This paper describes a financial analysis methodology and model developed for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA), which provides comprehensive projections of the relationships among system wide revenues, operating costs and capital expenditures. This method was used to conduct financial feasibility analysis and sensitivity analyses for the MBTA's Old Colony commuter rail project. This paper demonstrates how a comprehensive financial analysis model can be used to improve infrastructure investment decisions by providing sensitivity analyses which respond directly to the financial concerns raised by the decision-making board.

Subject Headings: Transportation studies | Subways | Sensitivity analysis | Forecasting | Economic factors | Rail transportation | Bays | Revenues | Massachusetts | United States

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