Probability of Facility Damage From Extreme Wind Effects

by Lawrence A. Twisdale, Applied Research Associates Inc, Raleigh, NC, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Dynamics of Structures


A probabilistic methodology has been developed to assess the risks of extreme wind induced damage to structures and facilities. The wind effects considered include dynamic pressure, atmospheric pressure change, and wind-borne missile impact loads. The structural system and facility components are described by fault trees, which are analyzed to provide the system failure probability considering all components and failure modes. Probabilistic Monte Carlo methods, coupled with variance reduction techniques, are used in the computations. Three-dimensional steady state windfields are modeled and time-history calculations of missile trajectories are used to predict the loading distributions on each structure/component. The model outputs include component and system damage probabilities for different levels of design protection and, for existing facilities, optimal upgrade and risk reduction strategies.

Subject Headings: Probability | Wind engineering | Failure modes | Wind loads | Dynamic pressure | Wind pressure | Building design | Load and resistance factor design | Monaco | Europe

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