Probabilistic Forecasts of Continued High Great Lakes Water Levels

by Holly C. Hartmann, Great Lakes Environmental Research, Lab, Ann Arbor, MI, USA,
Thomas E. Croley, II, Great Lakes Environmental Research, Lab, Ann Arbor, MI, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology


Existing projections of Great Lakes water levels over the next several years do not consider how meteorologic variability affects the hydrologic processes (basin runoff, overlake precipitation, lake evaporation) that control lake levels. Such considerations can be made with conceptual model-based techniques developed by the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) for the system-wide simulation of Great Lakes water supplies, connecting channel flows, and lake levels. The package incorporates GLERL's Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM), which is an interdependent tank-cascade model that employs analytical solutions of climatic considerations relevant for large watersheds. The integrated models form a package which enables probabilistic assessments of diversions, regulation plans, or climatic change that reflect the natural long-term variability of the Great Lakes system.

Subject Headings: Lakes | Probability | Water level | Forecasting | Runoff | Mathematical models | Meteorology | Hydrology | Great Lakes

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