Sensitivity of Model Choice in Reservoir Design

by David J. Wall, Pennsylvania State Univ, University, Park, PA, USA,
Rafael G. Quimpo, Pennsylvania State Univ, University, Park, PA, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water for Resource Development

Abstract:

The Box-Jenkins method of model construction and tests of model adequacy and fit are applied to a reservoir design problem. The sensitivity of the stochastic models used to generate synthetic traces to estimate required reservoir capacities, by the sequent peak algorithm method, is examined. One thousand synthetic series and subsequent reservoir capacities are generated for each candidate model. The empirical distributions of storage requirements is then fit to the extreme value type I probability distribution to allow the determination of required storage at a given level of reliability and to permit a comparison of the synthetic flow models used to generate the flow data. Storage requirements are found to vary as much as 20%.

Subject Headings: Sensitivity analysis | Reservoirs | Stochastic processes | Mathematical models | Water storage | Probability distribution | Probability

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