Causal Probabilistic Networks in Assessing the Vulnerability of Existing Buildings
A probabilistic assessment of the 'state of health' of the structure is pursued on the basis of pieces of evidence collected by inspection and by querying, in case, historical data bases....
Reliability Analysis of Navigation Structures
Methods for probabilistic stability analyses of concrete monoliths at hydraulic structures were developed and tested. Numerous analyses were performed using data from six actual structures...
Preliminary Assessment of Fault Rupture Hazard at the Yucca Mountain Site Based on Expert Judgement
The judgments of seven earth science experts were elicited to quantify the uncertainties associated with the likelihood of fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain...
Rainfall and Net Infiltration Probabilities for Future Climate Conditions at Yucca Mountain
Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the...
The Most Likely Groundwater Flux Through the Unsaturated Tuff Matrix at USW H-1
Using a probabilistic inverse method, an estimate is made of the groundwater flux through the unsaturated tuff matrix at drill hole USW H-1 in Yucca Mountain. The most likely flux is found...
Using QA Classification to Guide Design and Manage Risk
Raytheon Services Nevada has developed a classification process based on probabilistic risk assessment, using accident/impact scenarios for each system classified. Initial classification...
Robust Waste Package Concept (Multibarrier)
The design of the high level-waste package reflects the needs of the repository design and site conditions. As the program moves into the Advanced Conceptual Design (ACD) phase, different...
Sensitivity and Probabilistic Analyses of Ground Water Travel Time in a Fractured and Variably-Saturated Geologic Medium
This paper presents a method for sensitivity and probabilistic analyses of performance of a hypothetical nuclear waste repository located in a layered, fractured, and variably-saturated...
Effect of Interconnection of Fractures on Dispersion in Flow Through Fractured Networks
A stochastic modeling technique in a 2-D discrete fracture network with two orthogonal sets of fractures is developed to investigate mass transport dispersion and to investigate the relation...
Assessing Fault Rupture Hazard for the Proposed Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada: Demonstration of a Methodology Using Expert Judgments
As part of the Electric Power Research Institute's High Level Waste (EPRI HLW) performance assessment, we have developed and demonstrated a methodology to estimate the magnitude and likelihood...
Simulating the Behavior of Natural Geological Systems: Sources of Uncertainty and Bias
Post-closure performance assessments are used, in conjunction with controlled laboratory experiments and observations on natural systems, to generate confidence that a radioactive waste...
Imprecise Probability and Water Resources Decisions
In water resources engineering weak information would correspond to circumstances when the record is extremely short relative to the mean rate of occurrence of important design events,...
Computer Aided Learning of System Reliability Assessment
Good education should foster an awareness of the probabilistic nature of the real world. Insensitivity to, or inability to acknowledge and analyze, uncertainties of this world can lead...
Incorporating Weather Effects in Project Simulation
Planning of construction operations and projects must take into account weather conditions and the resulting impacts on the project schedule. Predetermination of weather and its resulting...
NETSYN: Neural Network-based Support for Synthesis
Our goal in applying machine learning for synthesis is to develop a tool that assists in acquiring the relationships between form, function, and behavior properties that can be used to...
Rive, Rive-Grown and Burst Probability of Rolled Compressive Concrete Arch Dam
The rive, every step of the rive grown and even burst of arch dam are regarded as sequence random events. Making use of the probability theory and the achievement of elastic, elastic-plastic...
Transient Performance Model of Asphalt Pavement Deterioration and its Application to Repair Management
The Japanese Ministry of construction has conducted surveys of the pavement surface condition of national highways. This paper describes the evaluation of the performance of asphalt pavement...
Treating Uncertainty in the Design of Horizontal Curves
A model based on expected total cost minimization approach is developed for determining optimal horizontal curvature for highway sections. Expected total cost is defined as the sum of...
Use of Fuzzy Theory for Dealing with Uncertainty: Evaluating Alternatives Under Uncertainty
A method to deal with uncertainty which is associated with vagueness and ambiguity is presented. Fuzzy sets are introduced to account for vagueness in expression and fuzzy measure is introduced...
Stochastic Generation of Daily Low Flows in Estuaries for Salinity Intrusion Studies
Stochastic data generation technique was used to provide a probabilistic approach to a salinity intrusion/low flow study of an estuary in West Malaysia. The Kemaman River on the east coast...
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