An Approach for Incorporating Inflows Uncertainty in Management Models

by Luis Vives, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain,
Jesús Carrera, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain,
Richard N. Palmer, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Resources Planning and Management: Saving a Threatened Resource—In Search of Solutions


Inflow uncertainty is probably the most difficult issue for optimal management of conjunctive use water resources systems. In many instances, the effect of future inflows and their uncertainty can be adequately described by the total inflow, because time variability for a given inflow is of less importance than its aggregated volume. An approach, which appears to be particularly useful for this type of problems, is proposed. The approach consists of minimizing the expected losses over a long-term period with respect to short-term operation. Directly derived from Bayesian decision theory, the method is very efficient for handling large systems.

Subject Headings: Inflow | Uncertainty principles | Water resources | Hydrologic models | Resource management | Mathematical models | Bayesian analysis | Water use

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