Probabilistic Risk Analysis of TLP Tether Fractureby T. Moan, Norwegian Inst of Technology, Norway,
M. J. Marley, Norwegian Inst of Technology, Norway,
G. Jiao, Norwegian Inst of Technology, Norway,
Abstract: A stochastic model for fatigue crack growth and final fracture of TLP tethers is formulated. Model updating through in-service inspection is included. The integrity of the cracked tether is evaluated by the R6 assessment procedure. Considered strategies for ensuring tether reliability include regular inspections and leak-before-break criteria. For the example, it is found that the sensitivity of an ultrasonic inspection method may be able to increase the reliability significantly if multiple inspections are performed. For a leak-before-break strategy, it is shown that the probability of final fracture during the repair period is greatly increased by model updating conditioned on the event of a leak.
Subject Headings: Cracking | Inspection | Risk management | Stochastic processes | Leakage | Ultrasonic methods | Offshore platforms
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