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Bayes' Theorem and Quantitative Risk Assessment

by Stan Kaplan, PLG, Inc, Newport Beach, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources VI

Abstract:

This paper argues that for a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to be useful for public and private decisionmaking, and for rallying the support necessary to implement those decisions, it is necessary that the QRA results be `trustable'. Trustable means that the results are based solidly and logically on all the relevant evidence available. This, in turn, means that the quantitative results must be derived from the evidence using Bayes' theorem. Thus, it argues that we should strive to make our QRAs more clearly and explicitly Bayesian, and in this way make them more `evidence dependent' than `personality dependent.'

Subject Headings: Risk management | Quantitative analysis | Bayesian analysis | Decision making | Uncertainty principles | Public private partnership | Public health and safety

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