Probability and Impact of an Observed Rare Sequence of Floods

by Leo R. Beard, Huston & Associates Inc, Austin, United States,
W. H. Espey, Jr., Huston & Associates Inc, Austin, United States,
Phil Combs, Huston & Associates Inc, Austin, United States,
Ben M. Littlepage, Huston & Associates Inc, Austin, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering

Abstract:

Accordingly, it may be concluded that the severity of the recorded sequence would be exceeded in about 2.1 percent of future sequences, or have about one chance in 45 or 50 of being exceeded in any future 5-year period under prevailing conditions. This is indeed a rare sequence, but while the computations in Table 2 and 3 can appear reasonable, the results could be seriously misleading. Assessment of severity must be based on an objective function that has some relevant meaning in application of results.

Subject Headings: Floods | Probability | Flood frequency | Risk management | Project management | Mathematics | Hydrology

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