Estimating Exceedance Probabilities of Extreme Floods

by Thomas A. Fontaine, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, United States,
Kenneth W. Potter, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology


Estimates of the exceedance probabilities of extreme floods are needed for risk analysis of dams and nuclear energy facilities. A new approach using a joint probability distribution of extreme rainfalls and antecedent soil moisture conditions, along with a rainfall runoff model, provides estimates of probabilities for floods approaching the probable maximum flood. This approach is illustrated for a 570 km2 catchment in the upper midwestern U.S..

Subject Headings: Probability | Floods | Rainfall-runoff relationships | Flood frequency | Risk management | Dams | Probability distribution | Runoff

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