A New Look at the Statistical Estimation of PMP

by Bingzhang Lin, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,
John Vogel, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology


The statistical base of Hershfield's Kmvalue Method and its application for estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) were reviewed. The mathematical expression for Km was re-derived. This new derivation made it clear that Km is dependent on only two variables: the deviation from the mean, Tm, and the sample size, n. It was found that Km is a consistent estimate of Tm when Km ? Tm. Therefore, Km can be used to make a preliminary estimate of the probable extreme rainfall based on the general frequency equation, when sufficient rainfall data are available. Some criteria for using the revised Km-value method and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed in estimation of the PMP 24-h point rainfalls in Texas.

Subject Headings: Statistics | Rainfall frequency | Precipitation | Frequency distribution | Meteorology | Mathematics | Hydrologic data | Texas | United States

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