Stochastic Modelling of Groundwater Flow at the WIPP Site

by K. A. Cliffe, Harwell Lab, Oxon, United Kingdom,
C. P. Jackson, Harwell Lab, Oxon, United Kingdom,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: High Level Radioactive Waste Management 1993


A stochastic approach to modelling the groundwater flow in the vicinity of the WIPP site in New Mexico is described. A geostatistical model of the transmissivity of the Culebra dolomite was constructed on the basis of experimental measurements. The uncertainty in various quantities of interest in a repository performance assessment, such as the time to travel to the boundary of the model domain, were studied using a Monte-Carlo technique. The results indicate that conditioning the transmissivity on the measured values can lead to a significant reduction in uncertainty. The issue of validation of statistical models is also addressed. Several statistical tests were applied to the models and it is suggested that hypothesis testing can be a useful technique for validation.

Subject Headings: Groundwater flow | Stochastic processes | Mathematical models | Statistics | Uncertainty principles | Monte Carlo method | Validation | Geology | New Mexico | United States

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