First-Excursion Probability of Uncertain Structures

by Yan Zhang, Univ of California, Berkeley, United States,
Armen Der Kiureghian, Univ of California, Berkeley, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural and Geotechnical Reliability


The first-order reliability method (FORM) is used to estimate the first-excursion probability of uncertain structures subjected to deterministic dynamic loads. An algorithm is developed that successively finds the minimum-distance points on the limit-state surface in the order of increasing distance from the origin in the standard normal space. A standard series system reliability analysis is then performed to compute the first-excursion probability. The approach utilizes a newly developed algorithm for computing the response gradients of the inelastic structures.

Subject Headings: Probability | System analysis | System reliability | Structural reliability | Structural analysis | Dynamic loads | Inelasticity | Algorithms

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