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First-Excursion Probability of Uncertain Structures

by Yan Zhang, Univ of California, Berkeley, United States,
Armen Der Kiureghian, Univ of California, Berkeley, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural and Geotechnical Reliability

Abstract:

The first-order reliability method (FORM) is used to estimate the first-excursion probability of uncertain structures subjected to deterministic dynamic loads. An algorithm is developed that successively finds the minimum-distance points on the limit-state surface in the order of increasing distance from the origin in the standard normal space. A standard series system reliability analysis is then performed to compute the first-excursion probability. The approach utilizes a newly developed algorithm for computing the response gradients of the inelastic structures.

Subject Headings: Structural reliability | Probability | Dynamic loads | Algorithms | Structural analysis | System reliability | System analysis

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