Optimal Flood Warning Threshold: A Case Study in Connellsville, Pennsylvania

by Duan Li, Univ of Virginia, United States,
Yacov Y. Haimes, Univ of Virginia, United States,
Eugene Stakhiv, Univ of Virginia, United States,
David Moser, Univ of Virginia, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V


A methodology for selecting an optimal flood-warning threshold has been developed by Haimes et al. (1990). The probabilistic evaluation of a forecast system coupled with a stochastic dynamic model of the evolvement of the response fraction in a community reveals that the desire for high present flood-loss reduction must be balanced with the possibility of high future flood loss. In this paper, a case study is given, using data from Connellsville, Pennsylvania.

Subject Headings: Floods | Case studies | Disaster warning systems | Forecasting | Probability | Dynamic models | Computer models | Computer programming | Pennsylvania | United States

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