The General Theory of Quantitative Risk Assessment

by Stan Kaplan, PLG, Inc, Newport Beach, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V


From the many individual applications of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that have been made in various fields, this paper abstracts and lifts out the concise, simple, and elegant cluster of ideas that can be considered to constitute a general theory of QRA in that it applies to all kinds of risk, in whatever field. The paper lays out the language, the conceptual framework, and the methodology of QRA and also of the Bayes/LaPlace/Jaynes view of probability, which, in the author's view, is the necessary philosophical and practical underpinning of QRA.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Probability | Underpinning | Quantitative analysis

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