Methodology for Validation of a Tampa Bay Circulation Model

by Kurt Hess, Natl Ocean Service, Rockville, United States,
Kathryn Bosley, Natl Ocean Service, Rockville, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Estuarine and Coastal Modeling


The National Ocean Service is presently conducting the Tampa Bay Oceanography Project, including development and application of a three-dimensional circulation model to the Bay, and collection of an extensive observational data set for model calibration and validation. Modeled and observed variables have been compared to give an objective assessment of the model's performance during calibration, and to compare calibration run output to validation run output. Several statistics are discussed, including rms differences between time series values, mean tidal extrema ratios and mean time lags, and rms differences in times and amplitudes of tidal extrema. Methods for combining results from many stations are discussed, and objective parameters were defined to assess model skill. For the Tampa Bay model, skill for water level simulation is greater than 92%, and for current simulation is greater than 87%.

Subject Headings: Three-dimensional models | Bays | Water circulation | Computer models | Validation | Mathematical models | Calibration | Simulation models | Florida | United States | Tampa

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