A Flow Forecasting System for Hydro Power

by Ching L. Chen, Systech Engineering Inc, Lafayette, United States,
Luis E. Gomez, Systech Engineering Inc, Lafayette, United States,
Carl W. Chen, Systech Engineering Inc, Lafayette, United States,
Robert S. Grove, Systech Engineering Inc, Lafayette, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Waterpower '91: A New View of Hydro Resources


The flow forecasting system comprises a network of meteorological stations, a weather forecasting model, and a watershed hydrologic model, implemented in a microcomputer. The meteorological stations collect weather data for retrieval. Each day, the operator turns on the computer with a modem to retrieve yesterday's meteorological data. The weather forecasting model will stochastically generate the data for the next 90 days. Based on the forecasted weather, the hydrologic model simulates daily inflows to the reservoirs. The model asks the operator to specify the target reservoir level at the end of 10 days. The model subtracts the obligated release for the instream flow need and calculates the water available for power generation. The operator can make several iterations until a satisfactory answer is obtained. The model then completes the work for the day and prepares a data file for restart next day. The process, which takes approximately 10 minutes, is repeated everyday to provide information for a real time control of the hydro electric system. The prediction errors are stored for an annual audit. The methodology has been applied to Bishop Creek System of Southern California Edison.

Subject Headings: Weather forecasting | Forecasting | Energy infrastructure | Hydro power | Water flow | Computer models | Electrical systems | Power plants | California | United States

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