Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques for Predicting Annual Power Production

by John P. Cross, STS HydroPower Ltd,
Peter J. Bulandr, STS HydroPower Ltd,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Waterpower '91: A New View of Hydro Resources

Abstract:

The problem of the creation of a simulation model utilizing the Monte Carlo method at a single site is addressed. The result of the analysis is a picture of the production at the site that is both a better reprsentation of anticipated conditions and defined probabilistically. First, the technical aspects of the Monte Carlo simulation are introduced. The actual application of the technique to streamflow modeling is discussed. The linkage between creating the streamflow models and calculating predicted power production is presented. An overview is given of the computer model utilized to perform the actual analysis. The implementation of the model at a sample site for which daily streamflow data are available is examined. Finally, conclusions are put forward regarding the usefulness of the analysis and areas for future work.

Subject Headings: Computer models | Monte Carlo method | Mathematical models | Streamflow | Simulation models | Hydro power | Power plants

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