Probabilistic Prediction of Losses to Lifeline Systems Due to Earthquakes

by Masoud Moghtaderi-Zadeh, ABB Impell Corp, San Ramon, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Recent Lifeline Seismic Risk Studies


An efficient and practical method for earthquake loss estimation for lifelines is developed, using the recent advances made in the areas of lifeline earthquake engineering and probabilistic seismic risk and structural response analysis. Recently developed loss algorithms and cost estimates for various types of lifeline components are used here to compute probabilities of exceedance of loss levels during a given time interval. A computer program for earthquake loss analysis of lifelines is developed. The use of the results of such an analysis by engineers and planners is demonstrated through an illustrative example.

Subject Headings: Probability | Lifeline systems | Earthquakes | Risk management | Pipes | Seismic tests | Seismic waves | Structural response

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