Estimation of Expected Damages, Indemnification Costs and Joint Probabilities of Dam Failures

by Anand Prakash,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulics/Hydrology of Arid Lands (H²AL)


This paper describes three methods to evaluate structural options for the rehabilitation of an existing dam using the dollar-denominated risk and capital cost associated with each option as the basis of comparison. Evaluation of risk requires estimation of joint probabilities of failures for different rehabilitation options involving different combinations of spillway sizes and dam heights. These probabilities are used to perform risk analysis using expected damages. The second approach evaluates alternative design concepts using indemnification costs based on failure probabilities within the residual life of the dam. The last approach uses failure probability within the residual life to perform conventional risk analysis. The methods of computations and results of the three approaches are illustrated by examples and the salient points of each are identified.

Subject Headings: Dam failures | Damage (structural) | Joints | Probability | Failure analysis | Structural failures | Earthfill dams | Drop structures

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