Bayesian Decision Principles for Flood Warnings

by Roman Krzysztofowicz, Univ of Virginia, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Optimizing the Resources for Water Management


A Bayesian theory of flood warning systems has been formulated. The theory offers principles for mathematical modeling of warning systems. The objectives of modeling are (i) to find the optimal decision rule for issuing a flood warning to the public based on a hydrometeorologic forecast of the flood, and (ii) to obtain an ex ante evaluation of system performance under uncertainties about the actual flood events and public response to warnings.

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