Probabilistic and Reliability Analysis of Asphalt Concrete Airfield Pavements

by Yu T. Chou, US Army Engineer Waterways, Experiment Station, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Structural Safety and Reliability


A procedure was developed to analyze layered elastic asphaltic concrete airfield pavement systems in terms of probability and reliability. Rosenblueth method is used to estimate the expected value and variance of the strains (dependent parameters) based on the input mean values of independent parameters, i.e., aircraft load, layer thicknesses, and material moduli. The relationships between the reliability level and the allowable strain repetition of the designed system provide a decision-making tool for engineers to design pavements at desired reliability level. The performance of a two-layer asphaltic concrete pavement is sensitive, in the descending order, to variations of the input parameters concrete thickness, gear load, asphaltic concrete modulus, and subgrade modulus.

Subject Headings: Airport and airfield pavements | Asphalt concrete | Asphalt pavements | Concrete pavements | Probability | Elastic analysis | Pavement design | System reliability

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