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Kernel Method in Importance Sampling Density Estimation

by G. L. Ang, Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States,
A. H. -S. Ang, Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States,
W. H. Tang, Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Structural Safety and Reliability

Abstract:

The use of the kernel method to estimate the optimal importance sampling density is introduced. This method requires samples generated from an initial direct Monte Carlo run to construct the density estimator. A second set of samples is then generated from the density estimator to estimate the probability of failure. The proposed kernel method is conceptually superior to the use of the normal density in the current application of importance sampling. A significantly lower variance in the estimate of the probability of failure is demonstrated with an example.

Subject Headings: Failure analysis | Probability | Monte Carlo method | Structural reliability | Structural failures | Structural analysis | Density currents

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