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Simulation of Precipitation by Weather-Type Analysis

by G. J. McCabe, Jr., US Geological Survey, United States,
L. E. Hay, US Geological Survey, United States,
L. S. Kalkstein, US Geological Survey, United States,
M. A. Ayers, US Geological Survey, United States,
D. M. Wolock, US Geological Survey, United States,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering

Abstract:

A new approach that uses weather-type analysis as a basis for stochastic precipitation modeling was developed and tested for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The weather types permit the identification of weather conditions associated with varying frequencies, intensities, and amounts of precipitation. Weather-type frequencies were used to stochastically simulate precipitation for Philadelphia and to produce estimates that statistically match observed precipitation. A new method that applies climatic-change scenarios to weather-type frequencies to simulate future precipitation was developed.

Subject Headings: Stochastic processes | Precipitation | Weather conditions | Rivers and streams | Water resources | Simulation models | Rainfall frequency | United States | Pennsylvania | Philadelphia | Delaware

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