Probabilities of Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Analysis

by Anand Prakash, Dames & Moore, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Hydraulic Engineering


Extreme floods of very low probabilities, e.g., 10-6 and 10-7, are estimated using data on annual flood peaks of two streams for 116 and 72 years, respectively. Different flood estimates are obtained using the normal, lognormal, Gumbel, and SMEMAX probability distributions, along with the respective 95 percent confidence intervals. For each case, the expected damages are estimated for an earth dam designed to pass the 10-6 probabilities flood for the respective streams using appropriate damage functions. It is found that both the magnitudes of low probability floods and expected damages are highly dependent on the selected probability distribution.

Subject Headings: Risk management | Probability | Hydrology | Rivers and streams | Floods | Hydrologic data | Confidence intervals | Earthfill dams

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