Practical Implementation of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

by Robert H. Sues, Applied Research Associates, United States,
George T. Zorapapel, Applied Research Associates, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Probabilistic Methods in Civil Engineering


Many techniques for seismic probabilistic risk assessment have been developed by university researchers over the last decade. This paper reports on a study being conducted to determine why the techniques developed over the last decade have not beem implemented by practicing engineers and to determine the feasibility of developing an easy to use, practical to apply, computer program to help achieve implementation. Initial results indicate that for many classes of structures personal computer implementation is possible, making use of the sophisticated analysis techniques economic. Also, a prototype expert system is being developed to aid structural engineers with little or no background in probabilistic methods in developing the required input data and a new approach for evaluating dollar losses based on ductility demand and ductility capacity is being developed.

Subject Headings: Seismic effects | Probability | Seismic tests | Structural analysis | Risk management | Earthquakes | Computer analysis

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