Probabilistic Capacity Value of Nonfirm Hydro Energy

by Stephen T. Lee, Electric Power Consulting Inc, Santa, Clara, CA, USA,
S. T. Su., Electric Power Consulting Inc, Santa, Clara, CA, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Power '87


Electric utilities with a predominant mix of hydro generation traditionally apply Energy Planning criteria rather than Capacity Planning criteria in developing their generation resources to meet future load requirements. This is because hydro generation has a high degree of variability in energy production from year to year. In addition to variability, the duration of low hydro production can be long as well. As a result, Energy Planning criteria are usually based on an adverse year. Planning to a target reliability level equal to the adverse year condition generally results in abundant surplus energy in other years. This practice is often called Planning Towards an Energy Balance. This paper proposes a methodology for estimating the probabilistic load-carrying capability (PLCC) of the capacity/energy surplus.

Subject Headings: Probability | Hydro power | Electric power | Load bearing capacity | Load factors | Wells (water) | Power plants | Utilities

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