Water Supply Demand Forecast

by M. Karamouz, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, NY, USA,
A. S. Goodman, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, NY, USA,
L. Bourodimos, Polytechnic Univ, Brooklyn, NY, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology


In this study, estimates of location, quantity and timing of water demands have been investigated for determination of the adequacy of an existing water supply system, the need for additional facilities, and desirable changes in operation. The main objective of this study was to develop an improved understanding of the traditional methodologies and modern techniques of mathematical modeling for estimating water demands. The traditional methods involved per capita methods and per connection methods and an estimate of water losses through leaks and unaccounted for water connections. More advanced techniques involved time series analysis including the use of autoregressive moving average models. Past levels of water use (aggregated and/or disaggregated) were used to estimate the parameters. In the analysis of water use, it was also necessary to externally project certain parameters such as population and employment. Two cases have been studied in this paper.

Subject Headings: Water resources | Water supply systems | Water demand | Forecasting | Hydrologic models | Parameters (statistics) | Resource management | Existing buildings

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