Uncertainty and Conservatism in the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Facilities

Working Group on Quantification of Uncertainties of the Committee on Dynamic Analysis of the Committee on Nuclear Structures and Materials of the Structural Division of ASCE

American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, NY
978-0-87262-547-1 (ISBN-13) | 0-87262-547-8 (ISBN-10), 1986, Soft Cover, Pg. 310

Out of Print: Not available at ASCE Bookstore.

Document Type: Book


Traditionally, seismic analysis and design of nuclear power plant structures are performed using deterministic procedures. In order to address the issue of the likelihood of failure, probabilistic and statistical techniques must be used. Of course, deterministic procedures are still needed and are utilized in probabilistic analyses. The probability of failure of a structure is related to the functional relationships between the various physical parameters and the uncertainties in the parameters themselves. This report addresses both aspects of the problem, with emphasis on identifying the sources of uncertainty that exist. The interactions between the parameters are important to both deterministic and probabilistic procedures. In this report, the parameter interactions are discussed to the extent necessary to understand how uncertainty is used to perform a probabilistic analysis. The objectives of this report are to identify sources of uncertainties present in seismic analysis and design, quantify uncertainties, when possible, and recommend actions where data are missing, and identify the status of current analysis and design methods relative to the scatter of data for known sources of uncertainty.

Subject Headings: Seismic design | Probability | Parameters (statistics) | Uncertainty principles | Seismic tests | Seismic effects | Power plants | Failure analysis


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