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The Credibility of Probabilities: An Application to Water Resources Policy

by Peter A. Morris, Applied Decision Analysis Inc, Menlo, Park, CA, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources

Abstract:

This paper focuses on one particularly troublesome issue in decision analysis, the issue of the credibility of subjective probabilities. A water resources policy problem is used to illustrate some of the preliminary results of ongoing research sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Subject Headings: Water resources | Sensitivity analysis | Water policy | Probability | Uncertainty principles | Public policy | Hydrology

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