A New Methodology for Modelling Water Pipe Breaks

by Stefanos Andreou, GM Research Lab, Warren, MI, USA,
David H. Marks, GM Research Lab, Warren, MI, USA,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Forum '86: World Water Issues in Evolution


A new methodology for modelling breaks in large diameter cast-iron water pipes is proposed. The need to consider two separate stages of deterioration (early stages with fewer breaks and late stages with multiple breaks) is identified. A proportional hazards model is used for representing the early stages of deterioration, while it appears that a point-process model would be more practical for describing the late stages (associated with multiple and frequent breaks).

Subject Headings: Water pipelines | Mathematical models | Deterioration | Pipelines | Pipe sizes | Disasters and hazards | Cast iron

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