DEL: A Fare Revenue Forecasting Model

by Jitendra N. Bajpai, Technology Research & Analysis, Corp, Arlington, VA,
Robert E. Johnson, Technology Research & Analysis, Corp, Arlington, VA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Microcomputer Applications Within the Urban Transportation Environment

Abstract:

As there could be several pricing alternatives producing the same amount of overall fare revenue, the solution search usually requires judgement in light of the predefined set of objectives or evaluation criteria. Due to such a semi-structured nature of decision making, there is currently a pressing need among transit pricing analysts for a simple, quick-response analysis tool for ridership and revenue forecasting. The Disaggregate Elasticity (DEL) model, discussed here, represents a step towards the development of such a tool. The DEL model is primarily based on the commonly used notion of disaggregate fare and service elasticities. Besides fare and service changes, the DEL model incorporates the influence of seasonality, inflation, and nominal growth on forecast ridership and revenue.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Fares | Revenues | Mathematical models | Ridership | Elastic analysis | Pricing

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