Stochastic Modeling of Mean Areal Precipitation for Generating Synthetic Streamflows

by Stuart S. Schwartz, Interstate Commission on the Potomac, River Basin, Rockville, MD, USA,
James A. Smith, Interstate Commission on the Potomac, River Basin, Rockville, MD, USA,
Kathleen Hogan, Interstate Commission on the Potomac, River Basin, Rockville, MD, USA,



Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Computer Applications in Water Resources

Abstract:

Statistical precipitation models used as input to conceptual hydrologic models, offer an alternative mechanism for simulating streamflow. In sparsely gauged catchments, or areas where gauging has been discontinued, precipitation simulation can extend short or imcomplete gauge records. Twenty years of mean areal precipitation data for 6 hour intervals are analyzed, and a stochastic model of mean areal precipitation is constructed for the North Branch, Potomac River. Simulated mean areal precipitation is used as input to the Sacremento Soil Moisture Accounting model to simulate streamflows. Statistics for simulated streamflow and streamflow produced using historical precipitation are compared to asses the representativeness of simulated precipitation.

Subject Headings: Precipitation | Streamflow | Simulation models | Stochastic processes | Hydrologic models | Water resources | Statistics | Potomac River

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