A New Look at the Statistical Estimation of PMP

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by Bingzhang Lin, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,
John Vogel, Maryland Univ at Coll Park, Silver Spring, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Engineering Hydrology:

Abstract: The statistical base of Hershfield's Kmvalue Method and its application for estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) were reviewed. The mathematical expression for Km was re-derived. This new derivation made it clear that Km is dependent on only two variables: the deviation from the mean, Tm, and the sample size, n. It was found that Km is a consistent estimate of Tm when Km ≤ Tm. Therefore, Km can be used to make a preliminary estimate of the probable extreme rainfall based on the general frequency equation, when sufficient rainfall data are available. Some criteria for using the revised Km-value method and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed in estimation of the PMP 24-h point rainfalls in Texas.

Subject Headings: Statistics | Rainfall frequency | Hydrologic data | North America | Texas | United States

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