Reliability of Operating Rules with or without Uncertain Forecasts

by Haralambos V. Vasiliadis, Rutgers Univ, Piscataway, United States,
Mohammad Karamouz, Rutgers Univ, Piscataway, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Resources Planning and Management: Saving a Threatened Resource—In Search of Solutions


In this study the reliability indices are calculated for operating policies generated by three Stochastic Dynamic optimization models: a classical Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP); a Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (BSDP); and a Demand Driven Stochastic Dynamic Programming (DDSP). The reliability is measured in terms of meeting the required demand when the operating policies are simulated in real-time operation.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Computer programming | Stochastic processes | Dynamic models | Control systems | Water supply systems | Optimization models | Bayesian analysis

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