Prescriptive Model for Missouri River Reservoir-operation Analysis

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by David T. Ford,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Resources Planning and Management: Saving a Threatened Resource—In Search of Solutions

Abstract: The six main-stem reservoirs of the Missouri river system are operated by the Corps of Engineers for flood control, navigation, irrigation, power, water supply, water quality control, recreation, and fish and wildlife protection. Changes in supplies and changes in demands motivated a review of system operation policy. To provide information for decision making in this review, a prescriptive model was developed. Goals of and constraints on system operation are represented for this model with cost-based and non-cost-based penalty functions. Prior to application as a decision-making tool in the review, the model was validated subjectively by comparing prescribed operation with operation following current rules for a historical period. In application, the model helps Corps staff understand the consequences of proposed courses of action. It demonstrates clearly the penalty for constraints on operation. It demonstrates what will happen if a particular policy is adopted, and it identifies the policy preferred, given a set of priorities for operation.

Subject Headings: Reservoirs | Hydrologic models | Rivers and streams | Model analysis | Water quality | Hydro power | Water-based recreation | Water supply systems | Decision making | Missouri River

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