Forecasting Instabilities in Groundwater Parametersby Fethi Ben-Jemaa, Univ of California, Davis, United States,
Miguel A. Mariño, Univ of California, Davis, United States,
Abstract: A multiprocess Kalman filter recursive procedure is used as a tool for modeling and analysis of noisy groundwater series in order to detect abrupt fluctuations and instabilities in the series. The approach yields an accurate description of the system evolution by providing on-line probabilities of change occurrences at any point in time. The procedure also identifies the type of changes affecting the observed series. The presented methodology is illustrated by monitoring the fluctuations in a water chloride concentrations series.
Subject Headings: Groundwater | Kalman filters | Filters | Hydrologic models | Probability | Chloride | Model analysis | Decision support systems
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