Forecasting Instabilities in Groundwater Parameters

by Fethi Ben-Jemaa, Univ of California, Davis, United States,
Miguel A. Mariño, Univ of California, Davis, United States,

Document Type: Proceeding Paper

Part of: Water Resources Planning and Management: Saving a Threatened Resource—In Search of Solutions


A multiprocess Kalman filter recursive procedure is used as a tool for modeling and analysis of noisy groundwater series in order to detect abrupt fluctuations and instabilities in the series. The approach yields an accurate description of the system evolution by providing on-line probabilities of change occurrences at any point in time. The procedure also identifies the type of changes affecting the observed series. The presented methodology is illustrated by monitoring the fluctuations in a water chloride concentrations series.

Subject Headings: Forecasting | Groundwater | Parameters (statistics) | Groundwater quality | Kalman filters | Filters | Hydrologic models | Chemical properties

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