Drought Risk Analysis Based on Hydrologic Records of the River Nileby Gerold Reusing, Freie Univ Berlin, Berlin, Germany,
Wolfdietrich Skala, Freie Univ Berlin, Berlin, Germany,
Abstract: The characteristics of the parameters of hydrologic droughts are studied by analysing and modeling the maximum and 'minimum' stage-level series of the River Nile from 715-1469/70 A. D.. A main factor in the statistical characteristics of these series is their long-term persistence. The results can be used to estimate values for expected drought durations, magnitudes and severities. The models are applied to the series of annual discharge sums at Aswan from 1903 to 1964. This series is not long enough to exhibit any long-term persistence. The application of models which take into account the long-term persistence lead to longer and more severe expected droughts.
Subject Headings: Droughts | Risk management | Parameters (statistics) | Hydrologic models | High-rise buildings | Hydrology | Water resources | Model analysis
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